Weather experts explain what happened to our severe thunderstorms
Weather experts explain what happened to our severe thunderstorms

Why the past few storm predictions haven't come true

IT'S been happening most days since Friday - a thunderstorm is predicted, but then it falls flat.

This is a recipe for a disaster here on the Northern Rivers, where many people love a good (but not disastrous) storm.

Bureau of Meteorology severe weather meteorologist, Andrew Haigh, explains what's been going on.

Friday, October 28

"On Friday in the morning we had partly cloudy with a high chance of showers. Thunderstorms likely," he said.

"We got some lightning data - there was a very extensive area of thunderstorms in the north east.

"But there was a little hole within the Northern Rivers where there wasn't much activity."

He said most towns in the region experienced some storm activity, just not all.

Saturday, October 29

While there were no storms at Lismore, there was one up north and "quite a lot on the ranges to the west".

That day there was a chance of a thunderstorm predicted.

Monday, October 31

Yesterday the Northern Rivers again expected a big thunderstorm but missed out.

"The lightning map showed a bit of activity south of Lismore and quite a lot south west," Mr Haigh said.

"There was quite a lot offshore as well."

Severe weather warnings

The Bureau of Meteorology released a severe weather warning yesterday afternoon a few hours out of the potential storm.

Mr Haigh explained these were simply safety warnings covering big areas and did not mean every single location would be affected.

"It's a hard one, we can look at the environment and say this area is favourable for thunderstorms, but they're not going to occur in every single part of that area," he said.

"Sometimes something can change slightly affecting (storm development), such as the temperature being a degree warmer or cooler than predicted, or slightly more or less humid."

Recipe for a storm

Northern Rivers Storm Chasers founder, Antonio Parancin, said there were a number of ingredients that had to be put together to have a storm outcome.

"Over the last few days there wasn't enough of them (the ingredients)," he said.

"Yesterday was going to be a cracker of a day but what happened was too much cloud in the morning and mid-morning didn't let enough heat through.

"Also the southerly wind change stalled and didn't come through quick enough.

"It came through at 7pm and that also didn't help."

What's happening next?

Mr Parancin said he was optimistic that our region would be getting a big storm soon.

"Usually November is the peak of storm season," he said.

"From experience when one hits, there will be a big one on the way.

"Towards the end of November we'll probably get a cracker of a storm, whether it's southeast Queensland, the Northern Rivers or the ranges."

A storm has been predicted for this afternoon but Mr Haigh said the chance of it occurring looked less than 50%.

The rest of the week is mostly sunny and warm, with showers predicted on Friday and a hot and mostly sunny weekend.

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