Surfing: Tropical low a gift for the groms
THE waves haven't exactly been much to get worked up about this week.
This is largely due to the unbelievably persistent El Nino pattern we're currently experiencing.
El Ninos usually release their grip as summer arrives, but not this one - it just keeps holding on. But I digress.
The point is it has had us experiencing weather that we'd be more used to experiencing in spring.
Strong northerlies, broken up by southerly changes, and just not a whole lot of swell to get into. Now if you've been feeling a little cheated by the lack of trade wind swells it's understandable, but don't throw in the towel just yet.
There's a bit of a gift on the way for the end of holidays, right on time for the groms to score a few before heading back to school.
Here's the deal.
During this week there has been a tropical low brewing.
You may not have noticed it, as it is not on any of the Australian charts, but just trust me, it's there, somewhere between Fiji and the Cook Islands.
It may or may not go cyclonic at some point next week, but that's not what is interesting about this system.
What is interesting, is the way it's been moving on a circular track all this week, with its lower latitudinal fetch constantly pointing directly at our eastern swell window.
Now before we all get too excited, this system is about 2800km away.
However, it has been there for a week, just constantly pushing an E-E/NE wind fetch over that distance towards us.
Now that means a reasonable chance of swell.
How much remains to be seen, but it could begin to arrive around today.
Okay, so this swell has had to travel a very long way to get here. There's just no telling how long it will last, or how big it will get, but that's not the point.
The point is, that even if it only hits at 1.2-2ms it will be straight east, so it should be well organised into clean lines, and the wave period is likely to hover around the 13-15 seconds mark for at least three days, and possibly as long as seven.
As for the wind, that's not looking so good at the moment, but it may settle into a southerly change over the weekend if we're lucky.
Stay safe, have fun, wait your turn and surf today like you want to surf again tomorrow.