Surfing: Semi hoax, or weekend waves?
OKAY, so no doubt most of you would have heard there's some swell on the way.
The question is, is it yet another internet semi hoax swell, or is it the real deal?
Well, from my perspective I'd have to say a little bit of both.
We all know that online the claims that tomorrow is going to bigger and better than today develop a life of their own.
Those claims serve a purpose, which is to get you back to check online again tomorrow.
The problem is it tends to wind predictions up to fairly unrealistic proportions.
This gets our expectations all pumped, and we end up with frustrated crowds, all itching for waves that were never really going to be quite as good as predicted.
So let's try again - will there be swell?
Yes, some, possibly more than we've had for a while, and yes, it will be easterly as predicted.
But will it be as good as the predictions are starting to claim? I seriously doubt it, and here's why.
This swell is not being generated by summer trade winds, but rather by a storm that's several thousand kilometres away.
The storm is big and nasty enough to produce waves, yet not quite intense enough to produce an 'All Time' easterly swell that can last such a long distance, without losing some of its punch.
Plus, quite simply, after many months of the agitating motion of small, short period, onshore conditions, our banks are not in very good shape right now.
Rather than being packed in nice and tight, the sand is unstable and there are holes in the banks at many spots.
Even if the size predictions are right most spots, except for the reefs, will be fairly sketchy.
At worst we could see sand banks collapse, causing strong rips and currents.
So it's cool if you're all excited about some swell, but be aware, things could get weird out there.
As far as I'm concerned I suspect that as the swell swings from the south to southeast today, then to the east tomorrow, we'll see more of this swell hitting up the Sunshine Coast than here.
So after the slightly larger southeast pulse pushes through today, what we'll see is a slow but steady decline in size as the easterly swell train levels out around the 1-1.5m mark on Sunday.
Saturday may be a little bigger, but I doubt it will be huge, as some are claiming, and once again, if it is?
Then beware of the unstable sandbanks - they can be treacherous.
The good news is that leftover east swell really should hold around 1-1.5m for several days.
In fact if we're lucky enough, it may even hold out until another southerly pulse arrives mid next week.
The end result would be at least four to seven days of surfable waves.
After the tiny stuff we've been having, that is something worth smiling about.
Stay safe, have fun and wait your turn and remember to surf today like you want to surf again tomorrow.