Wave-killing northerlies to fade, swell to return briefly
LET'S cut to the chase. There's been some reasonably okay easterly trade wind swell around all week.
It hung in around the 1-1.5m mark early and faded off to 1m later in the week.
But, those rotten howling northerlies have made finding a half-decent wave pretty tough going.
Things, however, are looking up. All indicators point to several rounds of S swell this weekend as the E/NE wind swell fades away.
It's all down to a series of complex lows and troughs that are making up a far larger storm currently traversing the Southern Ocean.
First to arrive will be a short period (8sec) S wind swell. This should arrive today, peaking at 1.5m. This will fade quickly and then be replaced by a longer period (10-13sec) pulse of new S swell about 1-1.5m on Saturday during the afternoon.
Again, this won't last. It will fade back overnight making Sunday morning a bit less consistent.
Then the waiting game begins.
Because what we're really all waiting for is the deep water long period (16-20sec) groundswell.
This could arrive anywhere from lunchtime on Sunday through till Monday.
If it refracts past Tasmania well enough we'll see a powerful clean swell ranging from 1.5-3m.
But there's a catch, it may not arrive at all.
This third pulse is a deep water swell, meaning it could just as easily show itself to us as nothing more than large distant lumps motoring north on the horizon.
Bottom line: I'd personally grab hold of the first two pulses to arrive just in case the bigger stuff drives straight past us.
You see, the final direction of that third pulse depends on how long that storm takes to track past Tasmania and NZ, and that is not yet known.
As for the wind, well, it's not as good as we could have hoped for, yet it should be better than we've had.
No nice sweet offshore blows I'm afraid. But at least there are no 35 knots northerlies forecast for the next two days.
The word is light, E/NE turning NE 5-15 knots on Saturday and straight E 5-12 knots on Sunday.
I wouldn't be too choosy if I were you. There's another high setting up over the Tasman soon.