Small swell is a total blow out
OKAY let's face it, there was a little wind swell about, but last weekend was totally blown out, oh the joy of spring doing its thing.
Once again we seem to be in the pattern of strong wind producing small wind swell. But then when the wind goes offshore it blows the swell flat as well.
This could go on for another few months. But this weekend there is hope, granted it's a slim chance, but a chance just the same.
It comes in the form of a long travelled, long period south swell. Now I don't want to get your hopes too high.
We all know that swells like this tend to stay out wide in The Tasman and then motor on up into the Coral Sea.
But this one has a twist to it that could dish us up a few lines from the outer edge of the greater body of swell.
The question is, if it does sweep our coastline, will we get it on Sunday, or early next week?
That's the problem, I'm hoping for all our sakes it's Sunday, but I suspect it's most likely going to arrive early next week.
What we have going on locally is a quite complex series of small lows and highs. But they loosely translate as northerlies for today and probably Saturday.
Meaning a localised northeast wind swell yet again while the larger primary south swell drives past us in deep water. But like I said, there's a twist.
There is a reasonably strong southeast change expected. It will first blow the wind swell flat, then it will begin to pull some of the larger long period south swell closer to the coast.
We will see some of this south swell. Although how much and when is open to conjecture.
I suspect we'll start to see its influence at some swell magnets by lunch on Sunday. But whether it then spreads across most of our beaches during the afternoon remains to be seen.
Sadly for most of us, I don't think it will get much bigger than 1-1.5m before the end of the weekend. But that's still better than just the current trend of short period wind waves.
Saturday: Wind NW/N 20-25kts. Swell: NE 1-2m short period wind swell (5-6secs) crossing up with an underlying southerly swell 0.5-1m (8-9secs).
Sunday: Wind NW/W 15kts early swinging S/SE 20-25kts mid to late morning. Swell NE 1m (5-6secs) switching to S 1m (8-9secs) mid-morning. Then possibly rising to 1.5-2m (10-13secs) later in the day if we're lucky.
Stay safe, have fun wait your turn, and surf today like you want to surf again tomorrow.