BoM July-September outlook issued June 28.
BoM July-September outlook issued June 28. Jasmine Burke

Grim weather outlook for farmers

THE Northern Rivers was in for a mild and dry few months according to the Bureau of Meteorology's latest climate outlook.

Released last Thursday, it predicts dry conditions with a high chance of below-average rainfall across the state.

July-September outlook

The BOM winter rainfall and temperature outlook, said the Bureau's Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) forecasting system was predicting higher odds of drier and hotter conditions across eastern Australia.

It predicts a 75 per cent chance of at least 100mm of rainfall in the Northern Rivers from July to September.

The measurements are slightly higher (up to 200mm) in Byron Bay and Ballina, and less (up to 50mm) west of Lismore.

100-200mm of rainfall was the median for the region in these months, but current predictions are it's unlikely rainfall in the coming months will exceed these measurements.

In terms of temperature there was a likely chance average maximum and minimum temperatures will be exceeded as well during winter - the average maximums sit around 21-23C for most parts of the region.

If you want to know out how this year's rainfall compares against the past 100 years, check out this cool interactive rainfall map by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Dry year so far - how has your town fared?

This is not good news as rainfall on the Northern Rivers was below average, not only for June, but for the year as well.

BoM's June climate statement said June rainfall was 31 per cent below average for New South Wales as a whole, continuing a run of six consecutive drier than average months for the State.

According to elders weather:

Ballina's average yearly rainfall to July was 1271.9mm, so far this year, the town has received only 921.4mm.

Rainfall in Lismore was also below average - the yearly average to June was 817.7, but only 536.0 has fallen this year.

The monthly rainfall figures for Northern Rivers towns are also trending to be below average - Lismore's June long term average was 99.2mm, but last month only received 23.2mm.

Ballina's rainfall for June was 139.6mm, the long term monthly average was 204.1mm.

Casino received only 13.0mm for the month, with a long term monthly average of 72.4mm.

Future rainfall predictions

There may be some relief on the way later in the month. The 28-day rain forecast by eldersweather.com.au says: "Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 July to 16 July, 22 July to 26 July, and 6 August to 10 August."

They predict the days with the highest chance of rainfall in the Northern Rivers as the 12th and 13th.



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