Nationals member for Page Kevin Hogan during Question Time in the House of Representatives at Parliament House in Canberra, Tuesday, October 23, 2018. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas) NO ARCHIVING
Nationals member for Page Kevin Hogan during Question Time in the House of Representatives at Parliament House in Canberra, Tuesday, October 23, 2018. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas) NO ARCHIVING MICK TSIKAS

OPINION: Hogan has reason to be worried

THE latest Newspoll figures reveal some alarming statistics for Federal Member for Page Kevin Hogan to consider.

The poll predicts a 3.9% two-party preferred swing against the government, which if repeated at next year's election would cost the Coalition four seats in NSW, including Page, and 25 nationally, handing Labor an overwhelming majority.

Given Page is a bellwether seat won by the party winning government at every election since 1990, Mr Hogan has every reason to be concerned. Moving to the crossbench to distance himself from the Liberal leadership spill, which clearly irked Wentworth voters, may help Hogan keep some of his voters onside.

"Obviously I think people share my frustration with it," Mr Hogan said when asked if his outspoken position was vindicated by the Wentworth result.

But he will be hard-pressed relying on that noble act alone to stop the flow of protest votes against the Coalition.

In what would be an ironic twist, Mr Hogan's own conscience which resonates with that of the public could prove his own undoing.

Mr Hogan will rest his hat on the electorate staying loyal to the member who has first and foremost campaigned for his community, in favour of the bigger picture of which government wins power.

The best Mr Hogan can hope for is a cosmic shift in the current political landscape and the leadership spill to somehow vanish from the forefront of voters' minds.



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