New sand banks bring the promise of waves
FINALLY, it's time for the local groms to get their turn.
The Queensland school holidays are coming to an end, and the New South Wales ones are about to start.
As fate would have it, it looks like a little luck may be on tap for the kids.
I've been doing some scoping around a few spots and there has been a lot of sand redistribution and new banks forming over the last few days.
You'll need to be careful, as there are some pretty radical currents going on with this process, yet it's all speeding up now.
I've found several new surfable banks that have started to form around our region.
No doubt there are many more.
The chances are getting better each day for a school holiday score.
Sure it's not all-time perfect, far from it, but many spots are now certainly a lot better than they have been for some time.
So, where to from here? We need some swell, but not too much - all these new banks are fragile and at this stage, still in the process of building.
A large swell right now could trash the lot again.
At this stage there are only two remote chances of large swell over the next three to five days.
One is if Tropical Cyclone Zena, a category three system near Fiji, suddenly changes track to the east.
This is very unlikely.
The second and slightly more realistic situation is a longer period of straight south swell from a low situated in the Southern Ocean.
It's most likely to send us a very straight, mid-sized, long period swell in deep water, of which we wouldn't see much of it close to shore, and it would probably even help to groom our new banks.
However if this system stalls long enough within our swell window in the Tasman Sea, then we could see a lot more swell from refracting along the east coast.
Either way, we won't know before Tuesday or later.
I personally hope it stays small - we need these new banks to hold long enough to become properly established.
As for the weekend, not too big not too small, well not for the groms anyway.
Straight easterly pulse all weekend probably holding around 1m at 8-9secs for the next few days.
As we all know that's not going to be wildly exciting, but it should be fun enough for a few slides yet small enough avoid to destroying our new banks.
Just a heads up, as with all new sandbanks - be aware, as they tend to be unstable.
They can, and do, at times, collapse.
Keep an eye on the little ones. The swell may be small, but the currents and rips are not.
Stay safe, wait your turn, and surf today like you want surf again tomorrow.