Highs keeping our waves trapped in Groundhog Day
AS FAR as the waves are concerned, it's like we're all living out the movie script from Groundhog Day at the moment.
From day to day the only real difference seems to be in the choices we make, because the conditions continue to remain the same.
A massive string of high pressure systems is the culprit here. Actually, it would be more accurate to say that it's a combination of the end stages of an El Nino and the Antarctic Wave, but I digress.
When it comes to our local region it's the highs that are holding court, and the key word in that sentence is "holding": They actually are moving, but so slowly that "oozing" would be a fair assessment of how these systems are behaving.
These highs span our entire continent, the Tasman Sea and south-west Pacific. Their influence is huge, and it's going to take something pretty drastic to coax this weather pattern into breaking up.
Bottom line here is it's weather, and weather changes. However, it has been a long time since I've seen a string of highs take hold on this level, and how long it holds is anyone's guess.
The result of all this for us is fairly simple: It's unseasonably warm, the winds are predominantly onshore, and the waves are small.
There is, sort of, a good side to all this in the form of wave consistency. Small though it is, this easterly swell just keeps on coming.
This is caused by the trade wind-style easterly fetch that has established itself along the northern edges of these highs. The way I see it, consistent and small is still a better deal than no waves at all.
As for how the weekend is shaping up, the answer is simple: Almost the same as last weekend, except this time the wind is less likely to swing strong northerly. Instead a light E/SE, slowly swinging around to E/NE is more likely.
Due to some slightly cooler temperatures at night, we may start to see some W/SW or W/NW in the mornings.
At this stage the offshore won't last long so be early if you're hunting the east-facing swell magnets.
The swell itself? Same as it has been for the past two weeks - easterly around 1m at seven seconds. Perhaps a little more or less, depending on where you go looking for waves.
Have fun, wait your turn, and surf today like you want to surf again tomorrow.