Last weekend's waves were an epic fail, but there's hope yet
WELL, that swell last weekend never really came even close to reaching its full potential.
Sadly, most of it stayed offshore in deeper water and we barely got to have little more than a nibble at the edge as it motored past.
It just never really had enough easterly in it until it had backed off about Tuesday.
But at least we had a few reasonable waves here and there, and it's looking like we'll get another chance for more this weekend.
This time, however, rather than coming from a southern ocean low, what we get will be generated by a complex series of low troughs that crossed the coast further south last night.
There's a whole range of things that could eventuate, including the sudden formation of an east coast low that may run up the coast.
However, my gut feeling is that it's more likely to rapidly intensify and then shift off to the east towards New Zealand.
This would be better for us from a swell perspective.
Rather than yet another big and extremely straight south swell motoring past us in the Tasman Sea we'd be more likely to get a little less size but more of a south-east swell.
The forecasts are calling for combined seas and swell to reach 4m to 6m on Saturday.
This alone is reason to exercise extra caution.
However I just don't see it happening in our region, with 2m to 3m along our shoreline more likely, although that too is still enough water moving around to leave it to the more experienced.
Either way, we'll know soon enough.
We can expect the bigger pulse of swell on Saturday, hopefully more south-east than south.
It should back off a little on Sunday and swing a little south-easterly.
The winds will probably stay south all weekend and be strongest on Saturday.
Be aware that if this system doesn't head off to the east, and instead hugs the coast and runs north, we will have a pretty wild storm on our hands.
So keep an eye on the charts and if it feels like it's too big, then it probably is.
Be smart and trust that feeling.
Stay safe, have fun, wait your turn, and surf today like you want to surf again tomorrow.