HAPPY FAMILIES: Kevin Hogan with wife Karen and daughter, weary but happy after declaring victory after the tight election results in Page.
HAPPY FAMILIES: Kevin Hogan with wife Karen and daughter, weary but happy after declaring victory after the tight election results in Page. Melissa Gulbin

LIVE RESULTS: Hogan declares victory

TODAY 2PM: At 1pm today, Kevin Hogan emerged from his office weary but victorious.   He officially declared victory, after cautiously putting off the announcement yesterday, choosing to wait for the pre-poll votes to be counted last night.

  "We've just been through a very long election campaign and like the rest of the country I am glad this election campaign has finished.   

It looks like the swing (to Labor) was less than one per cent, which was a lot less than the state average and the national average. The act that the community put their trust in me for this role, I am very humbled by, and I am grateful for their support.  

Last night was a long night. ABC declared the seat to the Nationals early. In my opinion a little too early. In my mind I wanted to see the pre-polls before we were confident that we had definitely taken the seat.   There is a lot of work to be done and that starts tomorrow.  

What I think is exciting is what a wonderful result yesterday's election was for The National. We are looking like we will not lose a seat.  

We've held page here in NSW and we have seen off Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott again, so The Nationals stood very tall yesterday. We will have extra cabinet positions in senior executive positions in the government because we have performed very well."

 Mr Hogan said the big issues this election that resonated with voters was the Coalition's tax cuts for small business.  

 Regards to Janelle    Mr Hogan shared his respect for long-term adversarial Janelle Saffin, who announced on election night she would not contest the seat in 2019.

 "This is the third campaign I have been involved with as a candidate . Each of them my adversarial has been Janelle Saffin and I have a great amount of respect for her.

 "Janelle and I have a great deal of respect with the way she has conducted herself. We have spent a lot of time together over the years and I wish her all the very best. She is a very decent person," he said.

 

 

SUNDAY 11.00AM With 87.6% of the votes counted, and Nationals MP Kevin Hogan sitting just ahead of Labor candidate Janelle Saffin at a 52.1%  preference count, it is expected that Mr Hogan will make a belated victory speech later today.

It has been confirmed that Mr Hogan will be making an announcement within the next few hours, which we imagine to be a declaration of victory. Mr Hogan did not attend his supporters' party last night because he considered the vote too close to call, with 20,000 pre-polling votes uncounted.

 

FINAL UPDATE for Saturday night: PAGE is still too close to call, with the results of the 20,000 pre-polling votes still to come in.

Both major parties believe the pre-polling votes will have a huge impact on who will be re-elected.

Kevin Hogan called the ABC's prediction of a Nationals win in Page 'premature'.

He said the 15,000 pre-polling results for Lismore were likely to come in, in the next half-hour, however Grafton and Maclean had only just started counting.

"It's far too early to call," he said.

"We are in front marginally.

"We've just got the Casino pre-poll figures in which are good but we're still waiting for Lismore's pre-poll results, Grafton's pre-poll results and Maclean's pre-poll results which is over 20,000 votes.

"The reason I think the ABC have prematurely called this result is that the results we got in pre-poll last election were good but the last pre-poll results in 2013 we were at 55.45.

"So we have to maintain that type of vote to maintain the slight lead that we have so I think the ABC have been premature in calling this."

Head back to The Northern Star's website on Sunday for more results and a full wrap up of the Federal election.

 

UPDATE, 10.45pm: Kevin Hogan has made a brief appearance at his election party, telling his supporters that it is "still too close to call".

Listen to what he had to say:

 

UPDATE, 10.30pm: Janelle Saffin's not conceding, but it's time to go home at Labor HQ in Lismore, with Jenny Dowell posting this on her Facebook page, reporting Ms Saffin's speech to her supporters:

"Thank you everyone. I know people are hanging on but it's just too hard to do it.

"We've got a 2.2% swing so Page is now marginal, competitive and in play.

"We are proudly Labor.

"We had the best policies - health, education, renewables, CSG, NBN.

"Pre-poll is still being counted but the swing and the pattern is there.

"From now this is my last go at running.

"I'm super privileged to have served the people of NSW in parliament and Page.

"I say a big thank you to the people here - we are the best party and we are good economic managers."

 

UPDATE, 10pm: Sure, the polling is nail-bitingly close in Page but the question, at least from Nationals headquarters, is: Where's Kevin?

The incumbent Page MP was pegged to be at the Lismore City Bowling Club celebrating with supporters from 6pm.

But at quarter to 10, with vote counting set to stop, Mr Hogan is still missing.

Here's the explanation:

 

UPDATE, 9.45pm: Pre-poll votes are now being counted, and the 15,000 votes in the Page electorate will prove crucial.

With 63.9% of the votes counted, Kevin Hogan has 50.9% of the preference count, and Janelle Saffin has 41.9%.

In first preferences, Mr Hogan has 43% of the vote, followed by Ms Saffin with 35% and Kudra Falla-Ricketts with 11%.

Page is one of the nation's key seats and election analysts are watching closely.

It is not known whether the result will be determined tonight.

In Richmond, Labor's Justine Elliot has not claimed victory, but told ABC North Coast it was looking "very promising".

She is likely to retain her seat, picking up 56.5% of the preference count ahead of The Nationals' Matthew Fraser, who picked up 43.5%.

 

UPDATE, 9.20pm: THE Greens' Dawn Walker has picked up a significant swing in the Richmond electorate.

Although Labor's Justine Elliot looks set to retain her seat, the Greens should be happy with their 7.5% swing.

Ms Walker has picked up 22% of first preference votes - not that far behind Ms Elliot, who has 30%, with more than two-thirds of votes now counted.

The redistribution of the Richmond boundary brought Ballina into the electorate and is likely a factor in the swing towards the Greens.

The Greens' candidate in Page, Kudra Falla-Ricketts, has picked up 11.6% of the vote, a swing of 2.6%.  

She is celebrating an intense but "amazing" run for federal parliament and hoping the numbers will turn around for Janelle Saffin.

The 19-year-old said she wouldn't be running next election but would definitely put her hat in the ring sometime in the future.

"I'll definitely run again... It's just a matter of how long it will be," she said.

Kudra said the experience made her realise just how passionate she was about issue like climate change, refugee treatment and then subsidies given to mining companies while hospitals and schools struggle.

"The experience has been amazing, it's been difficult and it's been a huge learning curve," she said.

"Thank you to everyone who has put effort into the campaign.

"It's beautiful to see people who are so passionate about their community."

 

UPDATE, 8.40pm: THE all-important pre-poll votes could prove crucial to the final result in Page, where it is still too close to call between The Nationals' Kevin Hogan and Labor's Janelle Saffin.

 

UPDATE, 8.20pm: THE ABC's green tick of approval on Kevin Hogan for Page, with 57% of the vote counted, has team Hogan headquarters cheering.

But While his supporters are cheering, Kevin Hogan is nowhere to be seen.

Although the numbers are positive, team Hogan headquarters acknowledges it's down to the wire and still too close to call for the Page win.

Kevin supporter and campaign manager for the Federal Young Nationals, Kurt Tucker, said the ABC's tick was an extremely positive sign.

"If the ABC ticks it then it's good enough for me," he said.

"At the moment it's coming in at about 0.7% which is obviously very tight.

"Things could change but with he kind of swings we're experiencing I think it's all going to balance out and Kev's going to stay in."

 

UPDATE, 8pm: ALMOST 60% of the vote has now been counted in Page, and there's been a 2% swing to Labor, giving Janelle Saffin just over 50% of the two-party preferred votes.

Despite that, the ABC is predicting the Nationals will retain the seat.

It is expected that pre-poll votes will be crucial to the final result in Page.

In Richmond, it's looking good for incumbent Justine Elliot, who is predicted to keep her seat with a small swing in her favour.

Just over half of the vote has been counted there.

 

UPDATE, 7.50pm: It is extremely close in the seat of Page, as the balance swings between Kevin Hogan and Janelle Saffin.

Hear how Janelle's dealing with the pressure:

Kevin Hogan may be in the lead (just), but support team Saffin has just received some positive numbers from polling booth at Coraki and Trinity.

Labor picked up 60% of the vote in two party preferred at the Trinity High School polling booth and the majority of votes at the Coraki polling booth.

But equally importantly, Saffin says the polling booth at St Paul's on Keen served up the best sangas today.

The Labor party candidate for Page admitted she needed to pick up her positive swing, from around 2 to 3.1, to beat but the LNP incumbent, but said it certainly wasn't over yet.

"I've fought the good fight and it's not over yet," she said.

"People have come out of the woodwork to campaign and they wanted to campaign on the issues.

"They're concerned about health and education."

 

UPDATE, 7.40pm: THERE has been a 3% swing towards Labor's Justine Elliot in Richmond in the preference count, and the ABC is now predicting she will retain the seat.

In the first preference count, The Nationals' Matthew Fraser is ahead with 33% of the vote, followed by Ms Elliot (33%) and Dawn Walker (The Greens, 26%).

 

UPDATE, 7.25pm: JANELLE Saffin has just joined her supporters at the Lismore Workers Club, where she is facing a two-party preferred vote going against her.

Supporters Liz and Bren, who were at the Lismore Trinity and St Paul's polling booths earlier today, said the support seemed to be in the Labor and Greens camps on the ground, but the Page result overall was too close to call.

"If I had to edge it either way it was Labor and Greens," Liz said.

"Everyone thinks it's so close."

Janelle joined her supporters just after 7 for what will surely be a nail-biting night of vote tallying.

Janelle Saffin supporters Mia Torres and Isobel Gregg.
Janelle Saffin supporters Mia Torres and Isobel Gregg. Leah White

 

UPDATE, 7.15pm: JUST over an hour into counting, and 25% of the votes have been counted in Page, showing Kevin Hogan ahead on preferences.

He has 52% of the two-party preferred vote, ahead of Janelle Saffin on 44%.

 

UPDATE, 7.05pm: THE swing is going back and forth between Labor and The Nationals' in the seat of Page, and even the ABC's election expert, Antony Green, says it's going to be a close one.

More than 5% of the vote has now been counted.

Mr Hogan has 45% of votes, followed by Ms Saffin on 32% and Ms Falla-Ricketts on 12%.

On a two-candidate preferred basis, Mr Hogan is slightly in front, with 51% of the votes.

 

UPDATE, 7pm: So far it's a subdued start to the Kevin Hogan election night party, with only a handful of supporters at The Nationals' Lismore City Bowling Club headquarters.

But if the enthusiasm of the few donning yellow is anything to go by, confidence is high.

Darren Barnsley said the man himself (being Kevin Hogan) was expected shortly.

"Things have started off a bit subdued," he said.

"A lot of people are still finishing off work at the polling booths."

But Mr Barnsley expects it to be a fun and celebratory night.

Kevin Hogan supporters Darren Barnsley, Gordon Hawkins and Joshua Dardengo at the Lismore City Bowling Club.
Kevin Hogan supporters Darren Barnsley, Gordon Hawkins and Joshua Dardengo at the Lismore City Bowling Club. Leah White

 

UPDATE, 6.40pm: COUNTING has started in Page, with 0.26% of the votes - or just over 2280 votes - now tallied.

In these very early stages, 920 votes have gone to Kevin Hogan (41%), with Janelle Saffin picking up 774 votes, or 35% of the votes.

The Greens' Kudra Falla-Ricketts is third best, with 13% of the votes.

In Richmond, The Nationals' Matthew Fraser is slightly ahead of Labor's Justine Elliot on a two-candidate preferred basis, with a projected 52.23% of the vote.

But The Greens' Dawn Walker has 34% of the first preference votes, followed by Ms Elliot with 25%.

Only 0.31% of votes have been counted.

 

ORIGINAL STORY: IT'S almost time for the polling booths to close and for people to return to their warm homes and await the outcome of the 2016 Federal election.

Stay with us here on The Northern Star website, where we'll have up-to-date results from both the Page and Richmond electorates, as well as all the action from the candidates' victory (or defeat) parties. We'll also post updates regularly on our Facebook page and our Twitter account.

We'll have plenty of videos and photos to keep you entertained, and well-informed.

And we'd love to hear your thoughts on the election - tweet us, comment on our Facebook threads or email us at news@northernstar.com.au.

In Page, it's expected to be a closely fought battle between The National's Kevin Hogan and Labor's Janelle Saffin.

Other candidates are Kuda Falla-Ricketts (the Greens), Mark Ellis (Liberal Democrats), Anna Clare Ludvik (Animal Justice Party) and Bethany Rachael McAlpine (Christian Democratic Party).

Sportsbet has Ms Saffin as the odds-on favourite, paying $1.45 for her to win as opposed to $2.60 for Mr Hogan.

Ms Saffin was at Casino polling booths this morning where she cast her vote.

When counting begins, Ms Saffin and her supporters will be watching the result at the Lismore Workers Club.

Mr Hogan and Nationals supporters will be watching the outcome from the Lismore City Bowling Club.

In Richmond, Labor's Justine Elliot also has a fight on her hands, with The Nationals' Matthew Fraser and The Greens' Dawn Walker.

According to Sportsbet, Ms Elliot is a shoe-in to retain her seat, paying just $1.15 for the win ahead of Mr Fraser ($5) and Ms Walker ($16).



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