Unskilled jobs will be harder to find in the future, the report states. Picture: National Centre for Vocational Education Research
Unskilled jobs will be harder to find in the future, the report states. Picture: National Centre for Vocational Education Research

JOBS DYING OUT: The careers you are better off avoiding

AS MILLIONS of Baby Boomers retire to make way for a new generation of workers, a new report has detailed where exactly the Aussie jobs of the future lie.

And there's good news if you're planning to be a farmer, a nurse or a teacher, according to the study by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research, which says these are the booming jobs of Australia's future.

The researchers from Monash and Victoria universities forecast around 4.1 million total job openings from 2017 to 2024 - about 516,600 per year. More than half of these positions will be created as Baby Boomers retire.

The study also shows which occupations you should avoid.

You might want to think again if you are planning to work in retail, mining or public service in the next decade.

Weak wage growth means we will all have less cash to burn which will affect retail, the mining boom is in its final stages, and the political push to return a budget surplus will constrict the number of public sector jobs by 2024.

The research looked at job openings in the next 16 years. Picture: National Centre for Vocational Education Research
The research looked at job openings in the next 16 years. Picture: National Centre for Vocational Education Research

"Retail trade's share of total employment will slightly decline from 10.6 per cent in 2016 to 9.7 per cent in 2024," the report reads.

"This is mainly associated with the overall household expenditure on manufactured goods, which has been weak and is underscored by stagnation in wage growth and a gradual reallocation of the household budget towards the higher costs of services, utilities and healthcare."

And, there's bad news for low-skilled workers in general. The highest number of job openings, 121,700 per year (973,600 in total), will be in "professional" (skilled) occupations.

More than 40 per cent of these skilled jobs will be created by the older generation retiring. Low-skilled jobs will also be harder to come by as automation continues to take over traditional jobs at an alarming rate.

This means that almost a quarter of all workers will be in a professional occupation in 2024. "Among professionals, the highest rate of increase in employment will be for accountants,

auditors and company secretaries (2.9 per cent every year), likely due to growth in industries that demand these occupations," the report states.

"The strong growth in demand for midwifery and nursing professionals (2.5 per cent a year) reflects the strength of the healthcare and social assistance sector, in particular residential care and social assistance, which receives a boost in the model through government expenditure on the implementation of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS)."

Have you ever considered farming? Picture: iStock
Have you ever considered farming? Picture: iStock

Australia's workforce will also be older by 2024. The report predicts that 35 per cent of the working population will be 55 or older, compared with 33 per cent today.

The second highest number of job openings, 71,300 per year (570,600 total), will be

for managers - which includes farm workers.

"Of these, construction, distribution and production managers had the highest number of job openings, with 10,500 per year (84,000 total), followed by farmers and farm managers, at 10,100 per year (80,900 total)," the report said.

"The weakness in construction, as well as the slowdown in mining, will also affect the demand in their low-skill occupations (for example, construction and mining labourers).

"On the other hand, the low Australian dollar will mean recovery in some subsectors of manufacturing, especially where there is a strong preference for 'Made in Australia' products such as food and beverages, pharmaceuticals and speciality high-technology equipment."

The seemingly bright forecast for the future of Aussie agriculture employment has been hailed by farmers.

Victorian Farmers Federation president David Jochinke told 3AW that farming has moved beyond the traditional image of "Old McDonald, chewing on straw in a tractor".

"No longer is it just an occupation - it's a serious business," he said.

"We do need people with IT expertise, we do need people who have business specialty expertise.

Automation will replace many low-skilled jobs. Picture: iStock
Automation will replace many low-skilled jobs. Picture: iStock

"And we do need people with advance science technology behind them as well."

The report comes as the government boasted about "creating" one million jobs in five years this week.

The government's official data shows that the areas of growth have varied from state to state.

In Queensland, the jobs injection was powered by the healthcare/social services industry, retail and education services.

In NSW, most jobs were created in healthcare, construction and retail.

Most Victorian workers secured work in healthcare services, construction and retail.

And South Australians benefited from growth in healthcare services, retail and professional, scientific and health services.

"Our Government is backing local jobs, with local projects and local investment in roads and rail - investment like this keeps the economy moving," Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told The Courier-Mail .

"We can afford to make these investments because we've managed the Budget responsibly.

"We are keeping jobs onshore by ensuring that the economy remains strong."



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