Could be the start of something big
SO IS this it? Is this the beginning, albeit a late beginning, to the monsoonal wet?
Is this the moment when we finally get to see the high-pressure systems and the hot dry weather release their grip?
Could it actually be time for us to see some swell?
Well maybe, although whether or not it's going to be any good remains to be seen.
Ex tropical cyclone Oswald has been tracking across the gulf region up north and it's now reached the east coast. It's currently deciding whether to stay a rain depression or to pop back out to sea and re-intensify.
Either way, whether it becomes cyclonic again or not Oswald could produce some much-needed rain in our region and perhaps even some swell.
There are many and varying projections on what this low will do next. But one thing is for sure, as the weekend progresses we should see a slow but steady increase in easterly swell.
How big and how clean really is dependent on whether it hugs the coast as a depression or heads east into the Coral Sea and becomes cyclonic once more. At present it's about an each-way bet.
For this weekend the indicators are pointing towards short period (8 seconds) easterly swells around the 1-2 m mark tomorrow and Sunday.
Not bad for a bit of fun.
But if this system manages to place a little more distance between itself and the east coast, which I suspect it just might, then Monday and Tuesday could suddenly become rather interesting.
The swell would become a longer period, perhaps more like 13-16 seconds, as it must travel further before reaching us. The swell size would have room to organise itself into better lines and jump up to 2-4m.
By Monday, if the system does head east, it's likely it will be tracking into the Tasman Sea and therefore directly into our swell window.
The end result could be some gnarly and intense waves for the end of the school holidays.
This is by no means a certainty, but it wouldn't surprise me to see 2-4m of easterly swell pumping through early next week.
However, before we all get too excited, I must point out that it would also be no more surprising to see only one metre of short-period swell, with possible flooding rains as the low hugs the coast as a rain depression.
As I said it's an each-way bet at the moment.
Whichever way it goes, we can bank on rain of varying intensity pretty much from tomorrow onwards. The winds will stay predominantly from the east-southeast and vary from 15-25kts.