Chance of better waves is riding on lots of luck
LAST weekend was not much to get excited about, and neither was most of this week.
The swell has been pretty small and straight from the south.
There really hasn’t been many options other than hope of the south swell magnets sucking the odd rideable peak into them.
As far as the rest goes, it has been pretty dribbly. Even though the El Nino is finally breaking up there seems to be no end in sight to the procession of highs traversing our continent. The lows are moving with them, but at more southern latitudes. These highs are too big, too close together, and just too strong for the lows to wedge themselves up between them. Meaning not much swell for us, up until now.
Down the southern end of the continent, they are getting plenty of waves, as these lows sweep past in the Southern Ocean.
However, it has been some time since we’ve seen one actually squeeze between the highs and track north up through the Tasman.
So where does that leave us on the swell front?
We were being fed by easterly trade winds from the highs, but as the El Nino breaks, and winter slowly creeps in, the offshore winds have put an end to the small easterly wave feast. This has left us with the scraps from the larger southern swells from much further away. Needless to say, by the time they reach us they’re clean, but there’s not much size left in them. Plus, even when there is, these swells are just too straight from the south to refract on to our coastline in any genuinely significant way. Bottom line is small wave pulses with flat spells in-between has been the deal.
However, there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon for the next few days.
What’s in store ...
Firstly, there is a pulse of swell arriving today. Yes, it’s mainly south yet again but thanks to the system it came from, stalling at the southern end of the Tasman, it may reach 1.5-2m from the S-S/SE. Not much east in it, but maybe just enough to produce a few rideable waves over the weekend.
Then there is a second pulse from the same system due to arrive mid next week. Now if we’re really lucky, this pulse will be a little bigger. Plus, if we’re extremely lucky, there is a chance that a small low pressure system could redevelop within the Tasman Sea early next week. If it does, it may be fed from another system over southern New Zealand and actually intensify. If this happens, then we could see a few days of reasonably-sized waves.
This is all a little sketchy, and the odds of it all coming together just right are not brilliant, but at least it’s a possibility.
So keep an eye on the charts mid-week as our luck could be changing.
Have fun, wait your turn, and surf today like you want to surf again tomorrow.