Wategos Beach, Byron Bay, NSW. Mandatory credit: Tourism Australia
Wategos Beach, Byron Bay, NSW. Mandatory credit: Tourism Australia Tourism Australia

BOM outlook: Concerning dry trend for Winter predicted

THE good news first, or the bad news?

The good news for those who really feel the chill, winter days and nights will be warmer this year with a more than 80 per cent chance of this occurring for NSW, according to the Bureau Of Meteorology.

But their outlook for winter this year (June-August) also reports things will be looking particularly dry, with below average rainfall for most of NSW.

"June is looking particularly dry with below-average rainfall expected for all or some of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, southern Queensland and parts of Western Australia,” BoM's winter outlook predicted.

"Broadscale climate drivers, such as the El Nino - Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are forecast to remain neutral during winter and thus have less influence on Australia's climate.”

BoM's historical accuracy for winter, including maximum temperatures was moderate to high for eastern NSW.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring for June to August.
Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring for June to August. BoM

In 2017, winter in the Northern Rivers was dry to very dry with extended periods passing with no rain, leaving residents with tanks with no water.

This trend continued well into spring, and at one stage there was more than a seven week wait for tank water.

BoM senior climatologist, Dr Andrew Watkins said despite some rain in mid May, it was a drier than average autumn.

"Both the Pacific and Indian oceans are showing neutral climate patterns and are likely to stay that way during winter,” Dr Watkins said.

"Warmer than average days are likely for much of Australia.

"Locations along the east coast can expect more very mild days than usual over winter.

"Low stream flows are likely at most locations.”

He said looking beyond winter into the start of spring, BoM's likely conditions for July to September will be available on June 14.

Temperature

BoM said it's very likely winter temperatures will exceed Byron Bay's median maximum temperature of 20.5C, as well as the minimum median temperature of 11.9C. Past accuracy is moderate.

It's also very likely winter temperatures for Ballina will exceed the median maximum temperature of 20.2C, and minimum median temperature of 10.1C. Past accuracy was high.

Lismore's median maximum of 21C is also very likely to be topped, and the median low of 7.7C could also be topped too. Past accuracy was high.

The Bureau of Meteorology winter outlook for 2018.
The Bureau of Meteorology winter outlook for 2018. BoM

Rainfall this winter

Lismore

The chance of receiving above median rainfall for the Lismore area (179mm) was unlikely. There was a 100 per cent chance of at least 25mm, but a much lower chance (13 per cent) of at least 250mm. BoM's past accuracy was high.

Ballina

There was an equal likelihood Ballina would receive above median rainfall (302mm). There was a 100 per cent chance of at least 50mm, and a 54 per cent chance of at least 250mm. BoM's past accuracy was high.

Byron

There was an equal likelihood the Byron Bay area would receive above median rainfall (247-302mm). There was a 100 per cent chance of at least 25mm, and a 40 per cent chance of at least 250mm. BoM's past accuracy was high.

Casino

The chance of receiving above median rainfall for Casino (107mm) was unlikely. There was a 100 per cent chance of at least 10mm, but a much lower chance (8 per cent) of at least 250mm. BoM's past accuracy was high.



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