Abnormally warm weather until until 2022
A NEW global forecast system brings bad news for farmers.
The years 2018 to 2022 are going to be anomalously warm with a greater chance of extreme temperatures, according to a probabilistic forecast system reported in Nature Communications, a scientific journal published by the Nature Publishing Group.
Some experts say the record-breaking heat and bushfires in California are a harbinger of what Australia can expect in the coming years.
Researchers developed the model, which provides reliable predictions of global mean air and sea surface temperatures, taking into account external forces such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, along with natural variability.
Although natural variability is harder to predict, their systems suggest it will temporarily reinforce long-term global warming trend.
"The forecast of four years of warmer temperatures promises to dry out vegetation and promote extreme fire hazard for much longer parts of the year across Australia," Murdoch University fire ecologist Dr Joe Fontaine said.
"Warmer temperatures mean the moderating effects of rain on bushfire will reduced substantially.
"These changes are another reflection of how climate change is happening now and is no longer a problem for future generations.
"Warmer climate forecasts for the next four years greatly increase the risk of heatwaves throughout Australia.
"Heatwaves have been clearly linked to greater human death rates, accelerated global warming, and a raft of ecological impacts."
Talking on climate change, CSIRO research scientist Michael Grose said things would warm up on Australia's east coast, where temperatures have warmed one degree since 1910.
"The next few decades are locked in but after that the scenarios become very different, especially towards 2050 (and beyond)," he said.
"On a high emissions scenario the temperatures will keep rising. The worst scenarios involve a lot of extreme changes, and so quickly.
"We've had a pretty stable climate for such a long time and then we are causing these changes so rapidly that it's very hard to adapt in time.
"More direct impacts of warmer temperatures is warmer days over 35 and 40C.
"The infrastructure and housing and habits of people will have to change quickly if they're to cope with the increase in hot weather."
For Lismore with a high emissions scenario by 2030, Climate Change in Australia's climate analogues tool predicts the climate to be similar to towns to the north are now such as Caboolture, Mackay, Noosa and Hervey Bay.
The tool matches proposed future climate of a location with current climate in another location using annual average rainfall and temperatures.