OKAY now that's a little more like it. A brief reprieve on Wednesday, and a southerly front arriving today that should last the weekend.
With each change that comes I find myself wondering, is this the one? The one that signifies the change away from the dominant northerlies.
This time I suspect not, there is still some northerly blow left to go.
Be that as it may, this particular change has a little sting in its tail and if we're lucky, it might just kick a few waves our way.
It's an interesting system.
We have a string of four smallish low pressure cells linked along a larger low pressure trough. It's been moving across the continent towards the east coast and the first cell crossed yesterday afternoon.
Each individual cell intensifies as it crosses the coast. Normally none of them would be potent enough to do much. But they are so close together that as one slows the next will feed it. The four will feed each other over the next twelve hours or so as the pressure drops progressively lower.
It's virtually impossible to gauge how a complex system like this will react once it's in the Tasman. It could be anything from a minor pulse of swell tomorrow to a very gnarly unseasonal ECL (East Coast Low).
My gut feeling is that a fully developed ECL is unlikely. But at the very least, it's safe to say we can expect some waves over the next two to three days.
Granted things will be fairly short period and lumpy, none of this swell will have travelled far enough to get properly organised. But it should be easterly enough to turn on more than just a few options. The way the crowds have been lately that's a bonus.
Saturday: Winds S/SE 8-15kts. Swell E/SE 1-2.5m (8-11secs) maybe bigger, beware of rogue waves this weekend, they are a possibility.
Sunday: Winds SW/S/SE 5-10kts. Swell E/SE 1-2m (9-12secs) Sunday morning could be the best option with the early offshore breeze. Stay safe, have fun wait your turn, and surf today like you want to surf again tomorrow.
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